Slow growth in 1984

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SLOW GROWTH is the most likely overall prospect for the world capitalist economy in 1984.

Demand picked up last year, nainly thanks to a revival and massive government 'overspending' in the USA. Profits have also risen sharply, both in the US and in Britain.

The rate of profit in Britain has roughly doubled since 1981. The problem (for the capitalists) is that the increase in the real rate of return is from only 3% to about 6%.

This makes the rate of profit be gained from investing in 1980:100 Source CSO PRODUCTION INDUSTRIES 100% Manufacturing 1981 production now marginally higher than the rate of interest to be gained by just lending money out - but only marginally. Industrial investment, therefore, remains at a low level.

This is specially true in Britain where the rate of profit is lower than in other major capitalist countries; but investment is not strong elsewhere. This sets severe limits to the economic upturn.

Moreover, the US cannot sustain its huge trade deficit and government budget deficit for very long. At present the dollar is still strong as against other currencies, but the logic of the situation is for an eventual collapse of the dollar - to be followed by panic policies of 'deflation' in the US and a new world slump.

The terrible economic plight of Third World countries, from industrialised Brazil and Mexico to acutely-underdeveloped Africa, is another factor depressing world trade. So is the stagnation of the oil market, which means that the bonanza which they advanced capitalist countries' producers of machinery and equipment have been enjoying in the oil states will dry up. February 1983 — an attempt by the government to find a scapegoat.

Act 3 was the rigging of the election in August 1983. Opposition voters were baton-charged as they queued outside polling stations. Polling stations in opposition areas were starved of ballot papers. Inflated electorates were invented for pro-government areas. Voting returns were falsified. This was the only way the government party could ensure a victory.

Coup Act 4 is the coup. A charade of democracy has now been replaced by no democracy at all.

The international bankers are cautiously rejoicing. The Financial Times suggests that the "would react positively to the coup as it is likely that a military regime will be better able to put Nigeria's house in order... the military government will feel less constrained by domestic politics, and could move ahead more quickly on the economic reforms which the IMF is urging."

The reaction of the mass of Nigeria's 90 million people is, from all accounts, weary disgust. The rapidly-growing Nigerian working class has not yet found a voice of its own. But it cannot be long before it does. THE Leicester and Distict Trades Council has sent the following letter to the Polish Ambassador: Dear Sirs, I have been instructed by delegates representing 36,000 trade unionists in the city of Leicester to demand the release of Edmund Baluka who has recently been jailed for five years on what we regard as trumped-up charges. In reality he has been jailed for legitimate trade union activities which are the right of workers the world over.

Yours faithfully, B.J. Prangle, Secretary

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UK output

EDMUND BALUKA